BY JUAN VíCTOR FAJARDO

In print | October 2, 2008

In May of 2001, during his first visit to Moscow, Chavez announced the birth of a “future strategic alliance” between Russia and Venezuela. At the time, his statement was not taken very seriously (to say the least). Political analysts and intellectuals laughed at Chavez’s overzealous claims to have become an important political actor on a global scale. It turns out, however, that Chavez’s mention of a new “strategic alliance” was by no means a joke. In fact, Russo-Venezuelan relations are getting stronger every day.

Chavez has visited Russia twice in the past three months. After the first visit two Russian bomber planes landed on Venezuelan soil to conduct the so-called “test flights” that I mentioned in my last column. If this was cause for controversy, then the result of Chavez’s most recent trip to Moscow is even more worrisome: Venezuela has agreed to purchase one billion dollars worth of military equipment from the Russian government. Reliable sources mentioned that on Chavez’s shopping list are several “anti-submarine” planes, various other models of fighter jets, and bullet-proof vehicles for transporting ground troops.

The reasons behind Chavez’s focus on strengthening Venezuela’s military power are not entirely clear. One reason might be that Venezuela’s current military arsenal is mainly comprised of North American machinery, and the functioning of this machinery is dependent on replacement parts that are only produced in the USA. Since the USA has placed an embargo on these parts, Chavez has chosen to do business elsewhere in an attempt to reduce Venezuela’s dependency on the United States. The question that remains, however, is why now?

On the one hand, domestically speaking, Chavez has more than enough reasons to divert the public’s attention. The latest polls indicate that Chavez’s candidates are bound to lose in the upcoming regional elections in November. Additionally, the Human Rights Watch report entitled A Decade Under Chavez has fueled many discussions concerning Human Rights violations in Venezuela. The author of this report was expelled from Venezuelan territory shortly after it was published. On top of this, Guido Antonini’s trial concerning the illegal trafficking of Venezuelan funds to finance Cristina Kirshner’s presidential campaign has brought the corrupt tendencies of the Chavez administration to the forefront of Venezuelan politics.

Given this context, Chavez’s recent political moves are rather transparent. It is clear that he wants the country to be thinking about how to protect itself from the threat of an American military offensive against Venezuela. Although the plausibility of an offensive of this sort is highly questionable, Chavez’s current political rhetoric centers on it. On the other hand, the political partnership between Russia and Venezuela is partly based on the premise that the United States is losing prominence in the global arena. In the US’s “back yard” the heads of state in Nicaragua, Bolivia and Ecuador espouse strong anti-American political views. The recent conflict in Georgia (perhaps the first military show-down between Russia and USA since the days of the USSR) has heightened tensions between the White House and the Kremlin. Some sources point to the fact that as a result of these tensions, Russia’s foreign policy sees the leftist regimes in Latin America as fertile ground for the extension of its sphere of influence. The military negotiations between Russia and Venezuela could very well be the start of the return of Russian influence in Latin America. As it stands, the stage is set for the comeback of Cold War politics – and Venezuela is right in the middle of it.

That said, the results of the presidential race between Obama and McCcain will undoubtedly impact the political dynamics of our hemisphere. What is at stake in these upcoming elections is more than improvement of healthcare in the United States and an “effective” exit strategy from Iraq. Up to now, Chavez has based his rhetoric on the negative track record of US involvement in Latin American politics. History is his best ally in claiming that the US does not respect the sovereignty of Latin American countries and is planning to take him out of power. What will happen if the next American president is willing to meet and negotiate with Chavez? Would Chavez’s theories seem plausible if the White House improved its relations with Latin America?

Juan Victor is a senior. He can be reached at jfajard1@swarthmore.edu.

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