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Wednesday, August 20, 2008



Examining the wild card system, 12 years later

BY TOMMY BENNETT

In print | October 5, 2006

It’s been over a decade since the inception of the wild card system in baseball. Instituted for the ill fated and strike-shortened 1994 season, the wild card has had an immense effect on playoff baseball. Of the last four World Series championship teams, three have been there courtesy of the wild card (Angels, Marlins and Red Sox). The most common explanation for the recent success of wild card teams is that the effect of playing meaningful games all September long keeps teams sharp and hungry, which then translates into success in the postseason. Teams that clinch early, it’s argued, get lethargic. More than anything else, I’m impressed with the success of the wild card system.

When it was created, the wild card aimed to sort out the difficulty of having three divisions per league playing against each other in a bracket. This helped baseball ease the pains of implementing expansion teams. In addition, the wild card allowed relatively strong divisions to be represented more heavily in the playoffs, while at the same time giving more teams a chance to compete for playoff spots. It went without saying that an extra round of playoffs would increase ad revenue and box office receipts.

Wild card opponents took every opportunity to voice criticisms that it cheapened the sport and diluted the playoffs. But these objections were mostly based on the “old timers’” reluctance to change a sport that had operated without much change for decades. Ignoring, for the moment, the fact that baseball and its institutions had always been in constant motion, there was one significant objection to the wild card. Most damning was the fear that the wild card would make division races insignificant. If teams knew that second place was still good enough, pennant races would become meaningless.

How convincing are these arguments, 12 years later? This season saw two exciting wild card races as well as three very exciting division races (NL West, NL Central and AL Central). More teams are in the playoffs, so more of the great talent has a chance to compete on the biggest stage.

But what about the fears? Two teams this year - the Phillies and the Tigers - provide a good lens through which we can evaluate the wild card system. On June 21, these two teams were headed in opposite directions. The Phillies had a .486 winning percentage and were eighth (!) in the wild card race. The Tigers, on the other hand, were owners of a major-league best .658 winning percentage.

The Phillies went on to wage an uphill battle against their wild-card opponents all season long. Young stars emerged, old veterans reproved their mettle and the Fightins very nearly caught the golden ring. There is no question that the story of the 2006 Phillies was very nearly one of the best in recent memory. The Tigers, on the other hand, sputtered late, finishing with a record of 47-42. Jim Leyland’s Tigers attempted to battle off Johan Santana’s change-up all fall, and the resurgent Twins remade themselves into the best team in baseball. In the end, the Tigers did the truly shameful and squandered a double-digit lead in less than two months. Before the wild card era, this would have been a choke-job on the scale of only the 1964 Phillies, who squandered a six-and-a-half game lead in just 12 games.

So what can these two teams tell us about the wild card? Even if the effect of the Tigers’ abysmal plummet was blunted by the wild card, so too was the brilliance of the Phillies’ near-comeback highlighted. Ultimately, the Tigers deserve to be in these playoffs and we can thank the wild card for putting them there. In the end, the arcs of triumph and defeat will merely be underscored. In the last two years, two of the teams with the longest championship droughts won it all. This year, the wild card has given history a gift — a chance to pull off a three-peat of long-standing desert. Though the Tigers last made an appearance in the World Series 22 years ago, they have not made the playoffs in 19 years. So hop on folks, there’s plenty of room left on the Tigers bandwagon as it makes its way to the World Series faster than a 104 mph Joel Zumaya fastball.

Tommy is a senior. You can reach him at tbennet1@swarthmore.edu.


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